Global fertility to fall below replacement level in 2026, study projects
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The global fertility rate likely fell below the replacement level of 2.2 children per woman in 2026 for the first time in history, according to a study by Bloomberg Economics. The study, covering 236 countries and territories from 1950, found long-term fertility decline in 219 of them. The world population may peak at around 9 billion by 2056, then begin to shrink, diverging from the UN's projection of a 10.3 billion peak in 2084.
Key Facts
- The global fertility rate in 2026 likely fell below the replacement level of 2.2 children per woman for the first time in history, according to a study by Bloomberg Economics.
- The study analyzed demographic data from 236 countries and territories from 1950 and found long-term fertility decline in 219 of them.
- In 2025, Thailand's fertility rate was 0.87 children per woman, Colombia's 1.01, Iran's 1.35, Brazil's 1.52, and Mexico's 1.51.
- The study projects the world population may peak at around 9 billion by 2056, then begin to shrink, compared with the UN's projection of a 10.3 billion peak in 2084.
Fertility Decline
The global fertility rate likely fell below the replacement level of 2.2 children per woman in 2026 for the first time in history, according to a study by Bloomberg Economics. The study, titled 'Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World', analyzed demographic data from 236 countries and territories from 1950. Long-term fertility decline was recorded in 219 of those countries and territories, with no signs of a sustained reversal. Global fertility peaked around 1978 and has been declining steadily since, initially in developed countries but increasingly in low- and middle-income nations.
Country-Level Data
In 2025, Thailand's fertility rate was 0.87 children per woman, Colombia's 1.01, Iran's 1.35, Brazil's 1.52, and Mexico's 1.51. Tunisia's fertility rate was 1.45 in 2024. The study notes that economic prosperity does not guarantee higher fertility, as low rates are increasingly observed in countries with lower per capita income.
Population Projections
Despite declining fertility, the world population is likely to continue growing for several more decades due to demographic inertia. The study projects that if current trends persist, the world population may peak at around 9 billion by 2056, then begin to shrink. This scenario differs from the UN's baseline projection of a peak of about 10.3 billion in 2084. A shrinking working-age population could strain pension systems, alter labor markets, and increase the importance of migration.
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Global fertility to fall below replacement level in 2026, study projects
