Global fertility falls below replacement in two-thirds of countries, FT reports

October 3, 2026 at 05:18 PM2 min

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Fertility rates in more than two-thirds of the world's 195 countries have fallen below 2.1 children per woman, the level needed for natural population replacement, according to Financial Times estimates. Thailand's rate has dropped to 0.78 children per woman, and Mexico's halved to 1.2 over 25 years. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde projects global population may peak in the 2050s before a prolonged decline.

Key Facts

More than two-thirds of the world's 195 countries have fertility rates below 2.1 children per woman, the replacement level, according to Financial Times estimates.
Thailand's fertility rate has fallen to 0.78 children per woman, and if the trend continues the country's population could shrink to a minimal size within a century.
Mexico's fertility rate halved over the past 25 years to 1.2 children per woman in 2024.
Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde forecasts that the global population may peak in the 2050s and then begin a prolonged decline.
In 2025, only 355,000 children were born in Italy, the lowest figure in the entire postwar period, according to ANSA citing ISTAT.

Global Fertility Decline

In most countries around the world, the fertility rate has already fallen below 2.1 children per woman, the rate necessary for natural population replacement. According to estimates by the Financial Times, this situation is observed in more than two-thirds of the world's 195 countries. The decline has been particularly pronounced in developing countries, with Thailand's rate falling to 0.78 children per woman. In Mexico, the fertility rate has halved over the past 25 years to 1.2 children per woman in 2024. Similar trends are being observed in major African cities.

Demographic Projections

Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde believes that the demographic decline could last for several generations rather than being a temporary phenomenon. According to his forecast, the global population may peak in the 2050s, after which a prolonged decline will begin. At the same time, an increasing number of countries are aging before they have a chance to achieve a sufficient level of prosperity. Possible reasons for the decline in birth rates include economic crises, high housing costs, and lifestyle changes. A study by the University of Cincinnati also links the trend to the widespread use of smartphones: young people are spending more time online and less time interacting with one another.

Italy's Record Low

In 2025, only 355,000 children were born in Italy, the lowest figure in the entire postwar period. ANSA reported this, citing data from a relevant organization and Italy's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT).