Kazakhstan's birth rate falls for fourth year after 2021 pandemic peak
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Kazakhstan recorded 335,005 births in 2025, down 8.4% from 2024 and the fourth consecutive annual decline since the 2021 peak of 445,875. Demographer Shynar Tuleshova attributes the 2020–2021 surge to a pandemic baby boom and notes that economic incentives alone are not a long-term solution. The decline has hit regions unevenly, with East Kazakhstan region down 30.4% from 2021 to 2025.
Key Facts
- Kazakhstan recorded 335,005 births in 2025, down from 365,923 in 2024 and 445,875 in 2021.
- The 2025 figure is 8.4% lower than 2024 and about 16% lower than 2015, when 398,591 children were born.
- East Kazakhstan region saw the steepest relative decline from 2021 to 2025 at 30.4%, followed by Kyzylorda at 28.9% and Akmola at 28.6%.
- Turkestan region lost the most births in absolute terms, falling from 65,002 in 2021 to 47,813 in 2025, a drop of 17,189.
- Almaty city and Astana showed smaller declines of 14.6% and 12.6% respectively over the same period.
National Decline
Births in Kazakhstan rose from 398,591 in 2015 to a record 445,875 in 2021, then fell for four consecutive years to 335,005 in 2025. The 2025 total was 30,918 fewer births than in 2024, a decline of 8.4% in one year. Compared with 2015 rather than the 2021 peak, the drop is about 16%, indicating that part of the current decline is a correction after unusually high 2020–2021 figures.
Pandemic Baby Boom
Demographer Shynar Tuleshova describes 2020 and 2021 as a quarantine baby boom, noting that such booms typically last one to two years and are followed by lower fertility. She says the surge may have been influenced by lockdown restrictions and by a new benefit introduced in January 2020 for families with four or more minor children or full-time students up to age 23. Tuleshova cautions that economic incentives alone are not a long-term solution, because socio-cultural attitudes toward children play a key role in fertility behaviour.
Regional Variation
From 2021 to 2025, East Kazakhstan region recorded the largest relative decline in births at 30.4%, followed by Kyzylorda at 28.9%, Akmola at 28.6%, North Kazakhstan at 28.3%, and West Kazakhstan at 28.3%. In absolute numbers, Turkestan region lost the most births, falling from 65,002 in 2021 to 47,813 in 2025, a decrease of 17,189. Almaty region followed with a decline of 10,290 births, Zhambyl with 8,283, Kyzylorda with 6,832, and Aktobe with 6,117. Large cities were more resilient: Almaty city saw a 14.6% decline and Astana a 12.6% decline over the same period.
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Kazakhstan's birth rate falls for fourth year after 2021 pandemic peak
