Researchers warn super El Niño could push Amazon past tipping point
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Scientists warn that a developing super El Niño could push the Amazon rainforest past its tipping point, triggering irreversible decline. The climate pattern, expected to become one of the strongest in 150 years, comes after severe 2023-24 droughts and fires that weakened the forest.
El Niño Forecast
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives a four-in-five probability that the current El Niño will become 'very strong' by the end of 2026. Some forecasters say it could be the most powerful in at least 150 years. El Niño events typically bring severe droughts to the Amazon basin, disrupting weather worldwide.
Tipping Point Threat
Some researchers suggest the developing El Niño, combined with climate change, might push the rainforest past its tipping point. A runaway cascade of drying, tree death and wildfire could then spread irreversibly across the basin, replacing forest with savannah and degraded woodland. Such a shift could release carbon equivalent to several years of global emissions and slash rainfall across South America and beyond.
Weakened Forest
Large swaths of the Amazon are still recovering from the 2023–24 El Niño, which dried out vast areas, shrank major rivers to historic lows and fueled the region’s worst fire season in more than two decades. 'If this next El Niño really is as strong as we think it will be, it might result in things like huge wildfires in the Amazon, spreading across areas that were unimaginable before,' said Bernardo Flores of the Juruá Institute in Manaus, Brazil. The forest enters this test in a fragile state, researchers say.
What's Next
NOAA is expected to update its forecast in the coming months as the El Niño strengthens. It remains unclear whether the Amazon will cross the point of no return, but scientists warn that the forest’s resilience is already severely strained.
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Researchers warn super El Niño could push Amazon past tipping point
