Super El Niño 90% likely to be strongest on record, climate scientist warns
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A prominent climate researcher projects a 90% chance that the 2026-2027 El Niño will become the strongest ever recorded, with Pacific temperatures rising up to 3.6°C above average. The event could bring unprecedented temperature extremes and disrupt weather globally, particularly affecting vulnerable communities in East Africa and Asia.
The Forecast
Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and IPCC author, projects a 90% probability that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be an all-time record event. Dynamical models indicate Pacific Ocean temperatures could reach 3.6°C (6.5°F) above average. The World Meteorological Organization declared the current El Niño on June 11, forecasting rapid development into a 'strong' event between July and September.
Expert Agreement
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts over 80% likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions by year-end. Emily Black, professor at the University of Reading, called the forecasts 'striking' and noted the high level of model agreement. She emphasized that a very strong El Niño would substantially shift odds of damaging weather, especially in the Global South.
Humanitarian Risks
The International Rescue Committee warns that intense El Niño conditions threaten severe flooding and drought across East Africa and Asia, hitting some of the most vulnerable communities. Al Jazeera reported the warning on July 14. During El Niño, warmer waters shift the jet stream south, altering global weather patterns.
What's Next
The El Niño is expected to peak later this year, with its true strength becoming clear only then. It remains uncertain how severe the weather impacts will be, as models are imperfect predictors of specific outcomes.
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Super El Niño 90% likely to be strongest on record, climate scientist warns
