UN warns El Niño could be strongest in 70 years, lasting to February 2027
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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns the current El Niño could be the strongest in over 70 years and last until at least February 2027. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world has entered a 'danger zone of extreme weather' as impacts are felt globally. Forecasts suggest monthly sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could approach 4C above average.
Key Facts
- The WMO predicts a 'nearly 100% likelihood' that El Niño will last through February 2027.
- Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have been well over 2C above average in recent weeks.
- Monthly sea surface temperatures could get close to 4C above average, making this the strongest El Niño since at least 1950.
- Below the surface of the Pacific, temperatures are in places more than 8C above average.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres said 'El Niño is being supersized before our eyes' and the planet is in 'uncharted waters'.
Unprecedented Forecast Confidence
The World Meteorological Organization issued its most certain forecast in the organization's history, predicting a 'nearly 100% likelihood' that El Niño will last through February 2027. The agency stated this is the first time a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting strong agreement within its extensive network. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. The WMO has undertaken a major mobilisation to circulate its forecasts of potential extreme weather events to as many communities as possible.
Ocean Temperature Anomalies
In the Pacific's key monitoring region, surface temperatures have been well over 2C above average in recent weeks, putting the event on track to be declared 'very strong'. Monthly sea surface temperatures could get close to 4C above average, which would make this the strongest El Niño since at least 1950 by potentially a large margin. Temperatures below the surface of the Pacific are even more exceptional, in places more than 8C above average. Above-normal sea temperatures are also expected in the Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, and around parts of the Australian coast. Australia, with its rich marine life, has been plagued by marine heatwaves in recent years driven by climate change.
Global Preparedness Measures
Early warning systems have been strengthened and pre-emptive medical assistance deployed in response to the El Niño threat. The strength of this particular event has raised serious concerns particularly for vulnerable groups. The BBC spoke with governments and scientists about measures being taken globally to reduce the risk of deaths, displacement and environmental damage.
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UN warns El Niño could be strongest in 70 years, lasting to February 2027