Siberian methane rise may offset 20% of global reduction goals by 2050, study finds
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A new study published in Science projects that rising methane emissions from Siberia could offset up to 20% of global methane reduction targets by 2050, as permafrost thaw and wildfires accelerate. The research, led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, found that annual methane emissions in Siberia increased by 12 teragrams from 2010 to 2023, an amount equal to 92% of the global rise from wetlands.
Emission Surge
Siberia accounts for only 5% of global methane emissions, but its emissions are rising rapidly. Using data from Japan’s GOSAT satellite and ground stations, researchers found annual emissions grew by 12.0 ± 1.9 teragrams from 2010 to 2023, averaging 1.1 teragrams per year. This growth rate equals 92% of the worldwide increase from wetlands. The study, published August 6, was led by Prof. Liu Yi of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Regional Mechanisms
The Yenisei River marks a climatic divide: Western Siberia is becoming wetter, while eastern Siberia grows warmer and drier. In the west, the wintertime Scandinavian atmospheric pattern drives methane release through increased precipitation and soil moisture. In the east, summer heatwaves and wildfires accelerate permafrost thaw and microbial activity. Both mechanisms contribute to the sharp rise, with eastern Siberia’s drier conditions intensifying wildfire-related emissions.
Validation Approach
To narrow uncertainty, the team combined satellite measurements with data from a global network of near-surface stations, including tall towers in Siberia. This inversion method reduced emission estimate errors to roughly 10%. Independent cross-checks with multiple datasets and atmospheric circulation models confirmed the upward trend first detected in 2021. Lead author Dr. Zhu Sihong developed the methane flux inversion system central to the study.
What's Next
The findings will be presented at the UN Climate Conference in November, where delegates may consider strengthening methane reduction pledges. Scientists warn that without urgent action, the permafrost feedback loop could become a major wildcard in global climate projections.
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Siberian methane rise may offset 20% of global reduction goals by 2050, study finds
