Kazakhstan outlines three oil price scenarios for 2027 budget

September 29, 2026 at 02:43 PM2 min

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Kazakhstan's Ministry of National Economy has calculated three oil price scenarios for 2027, with the base case set at $70 per barrel. Under this scenario, oil sector revenues to the National Fund are estimated at 3.78 trillion tenge and 1.6 trillion tenge to the republican budget. The pessimistic scenario assumes $50 per barrel, while the optimistic scenario assumes $85 per barrel.

Key Facts

The base case for the 2027 budget assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel, based on consensus forecasts from international financial organizations.
Under the pessimistic scenario of $50 per barrel, National Fund revenues from the oil sector would fall to 2.9 trillion tenge and republican budget revenues to 1.26 trillion tenge.
Under the optimistic scenario of $85 per barrel, National Fund revenues would rise to 4.57 trillion tenge and republican budget revenues to nearly 2 trillion tenge.
In 2026, oil sector organizations are expected to contribute about 4.1 trillion tenge to the National Fund and 1.69 trillion tenge to the republican budget.
The Ministry of National Economy previously indicated that the timeline for reaching $100 billion in the National Fund may be extended.

Budget Planning Scenarios

The Ministry of National Economy developed three oil price scenarios for the 2027 budget: base, pessimistic, and optimistic. The base scenario of $70 per barrel was set using consensus forecasts from international financial organizations, current price levels, commodity market volatility, and global economic risks. Under this base scenario, oil sector revenues to the National Fund are estimated at 3.78 trillion tenge and to the republican budget at 1.6 trillion tenge. The pessimistic scenario assumes an oil price of $50 per barrel, resulting in National Fund revenues of 2.9 trillion tenge and republican budget revenues of 1.26 trillion tenge. The optimistic scenario assumes $85 per barrel, yielding 4.57 trillion tenge to the National Fund and nearly 2 trillion tenge to the republican budget.

Revenue Allocation Rules

Oil sector revenues are primarily credited to the National Fund, except for export customs duty on crude oil, which goes to the republican budget. The types of revenues to the National Fund from oil sector organizations are defined in paragraph 2 of Article 58 of the Budget Code. These include direct taxes from oil sector organizations, such as corporate income tax, excess profit tax, mineral extraction tax, bonuses, production sharing share, export rent tax, and other revenues from oil sector operations. Under the established procedure, all oil revenues are fully credited to the National Fund, including additional revenues when oil prices are higher.