Kazakhstan budget projects oil at $70 per barrel for 2027-2029

September 11, 2026 at 04:06 PM2 min

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Kazakhstan's draft budget for 2027-2029 sets the oil price assumption at $70 per barrel, up $10 from the previous three-year plan. The Finance Ministry said the figure reflects a consensus forecast of international financial organizations of about $70.3 per barrel for 2027. The revision follows the February 2026 Iran-US war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed Brent crude above $130 in April.

Key Facts

The draft republican budget for 2027-2029 assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel, $10 higher than the assumption used for 2026-2028.
The Finance Ministry said the consensus forecast of international financial organizations for 2027 oil prices was about $70.3 per barrel.
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and Iran responded by attacking Israel and US bases in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supplies, or roughly 20 million barrels per day.
Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel in March 2026 and reached $130 per barrel in April after the US imposed a full naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Budget Oil Price Assumption

Kazakhstan's draft republican budget for 2027-2029 sets the oil price assumption at $70 per barrel. This is $10 higher than the price used in the previous three-year budget for 2026-2028. The Finance Ministry said the figure reflects a consensus forecast of international financial organizations, which put the 2027 oil price at about $70.3 per barrel. The ministry added that the budget was formed on a conservative and sustainable basis.

Oil Market Shock

In early 2026, analysts forecast an oil supply surplus and a price of $60 per barrel, which was used in Kazakhstan's previous three-year budget. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes on Iranian territory, an operation the US called Epic Fury and Israel called Roaring Lion. Iran retaliated the same day with attacks on Israel and US bases in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, turning a regional crisis into a full-scale war. Iran also closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key global artery that carries about 20% of world oil supplies, or around 20 million barrels per day. Global oil supply fell by 10-14 million barrels per day at once, and Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel in March 2026.

Price Volatility and Stabilization

In April 2026, after the US imposed a full naval blockade of Iranian ports, Brent crude jumped to $130 per barrel. Prices reacted sharply to news of possible negotiations, their breakdowns, and other factors, falling and rising repeatedly. States faced disruptions in global energy logistics, and parallel attempts were made to stabilize the market.