ExxonMobil projects Kazakhstan's Tengiz output to fall to 500,000 bpd by 2035
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ExxonMobil expects output at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field to fall to about 500,000 barrels per day by 2035 after reaching a plateau in 2027, Bloomberg reported. The projected decline is roughly 40% below the maximum level, and Tengiz accounts for a large share of Kazakhstan's national production. The scenario assumes no new large-scale investment in maintaining output at the field.
Key Facts
- Tengizchevroil produced 39.011 million tonnes of oil in 2025, averaging about 853,000 barrels per day.
- ExxonMobil projects Tengiz will reach a production plateau in 2027 and decline to about 500,000 barrels per day by 2035.
- The projected 2035 level is about 40% below the field's maximum output.
- The Future Growth Project was designed to add about 260,000 barrels per day and bring total capacity to around 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- The expansion was estimated to cost $47-48 billion.
Tengiz Decline Projection
ExxonMobil expects Tengiz to reach a production plateau in 2027, after which output will gradually decline. By 2035, production is projected to fall to about 500,000 barrels per day, roughly 40% below the maximum level. The projection assumes no new large-scale investment in increasing or maintaining output at Tengiz.
Future Growth Project
Tengizchevroil produced 39.011 million tonnes of oil in 2025, averaging about 853,000 barrels per day, following completion of the Future Growth Project. The project was designed to add about 260,000 barrels per day and bring total capacity to about 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The expansion cost an estimated $47-48 billion, making it one of the largest oil and gas capital investments in the world in recent years. Kazakhstan and international partners completed the investment program that brought Tengiz to maximum output.
Reservoir Depletion Drivers
Natural reservoir pressure decreases as oil is extracted, requiring more technological measures to maintain well flow rates. At Tengiz, a wellhead pressure management project and expanded sour gas reinjection capacity help maintain reservoir pressure. These technologies were part of the latest megaproject but do not permanently offset natural depletion. ExxonMobil's scenario therefore projects a decline after peak production unless partners launch a new investment cycle.
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ExxonMobil projects Kazakhstan's Tengiz output to fall to 500,000 bpd by 2035
