US Composite PMI hits 58.4, 10-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%

September 24, 2026 at 11:25 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, the highest since July 2021. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 14 basis points to 5.106%, the first time above 5.1% since 2007. Futures now price a 66% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, up from 53% before the data.

Key Facts

The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the highest since July 2021.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose nearly 14 basis points on the day to 5.106%, the highest since 2007.
The two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.89%, touching 4.95% intraday.
Futures markets now imply a 66% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, up from 53% before the PMI release.
The KASE index fell 0.30% to 7,857.2 points, pressured by Kazatomprom (-1.8%) and Kaspi (-1.3%).

US Economic Data

The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the highest since July 2021. New orders accelerated and business activity continued to expand, according to the survey. FHN Financial told Reuters the data point to a risk of economic overheating and additional inflationary pressure.

Bond Market Reaction

The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped nearly 14 basis points to 5.106%, the first time above 5.1% since 2007. The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.89%, touching 4.95% intraday. A $70 billion auction of five-year Treasury notes met weak demand, with the awarded yield the highest since 2007.

Fed Rate Expectations

Before the PMI release, fed funds futures implied about a 53% chance of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October meeting. After the data, that probability rose to 66%. US equities fell: the Dow Jones lost 0.68%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.13%. The dollar strengthened against major currencies.