OECD cuts Turkey 2026 growth forecast to 2.7%, raises inflation to 31.5%

September 23, 2026 at 01:40 PM1 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The OECD cut Turkey's 2026 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.1% in its September Economic Outlook. The organization raised Turkey's 2026 headline inflation forecast to 31.5% from 28.4%. The global growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 2.9% from 2.8%.

Key Facts

OECD cut Turkey's 2026 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.1% in June.
OECD raised Turkey's 2026 headline inflation forecast to 31.5% from 28.4%.
OECD cut Turkey's 2027 growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.8%.
OECD raised Turkey's 2027 headline inflation forecast to 24.7% from 18.3%.
OECD raised global 2026 growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.8%.

Turkey Forecast Revisions

The OECD lowered Turkey's 2026 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.1% in its September Economic Outlook. Turkey's 2027 growth forecast was cut to 3.6% from 3.8%. The OECD raised Turkey's 2026 headline inflation forecast to 31.5% from 28.4%. Turkey's 2027 headline inflation forecast was raised to 24.7% from 18.3%. The OECD noted that energy and fertilizer costs continue to hinder disinflation in Turkey.

Global Growth Outlook

The OECD raised its global 2026 growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.8%. Global 2027 growth forecast was cut to 3.0% from 3.1%. The OECD attributed the improved global outlook partly to AI-driven investment. The OECD's interim report 'Weathering Successive Shocks' notes that global reserves are being depleted faster than they are replenished. Brent crude is projected to peak at $105 per barrel in Q4 2026 before declining to $85 in 2027.

Monetary Policy Divergence

The OECD expects India to temporarily raise its policy rate to counter rising inflation pressures. Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey are expected to lower rates as inflation moderates. China's interest rates are projected to remain low. G20 inflation is forecast to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, then ease to 3.6% in 2027.