EDB raises Kyrgyzstan 2026 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%, inflation to 11.5%

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialAugust 30, 2026 at 05:00 AM

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EDB raises Kyrgyzstan 2026 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%, inflation to 11.5%

The Eurasian Development Bank raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 10.2% from 9.3%. The bank also sharply increased its inflation outlook to 11.5% from 8.3%, citing higher global food and oil prices. The revised forecast was published in June 2026.

Key Facts

The Eurasian Development Bank raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 10.2% from 9.3%.
The bank increased its 2026 inflation forecast to 11.5% from 8.3%, a rise of 3.2 percentage points.
The 2027 GDP growth forecast was raised to 8.3% from 7.6%, while the 2028 forecast remained at 7.5%.
The average policy rate is now projected at 11.8% for 2026, up from 11% in the previous forecast.
The average som exchange rate forecast for 2026 was improved to 88 soms per dollar from 89.2 soms.

Growth Forecast Revisions

The Eurasian Development Bank raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 10.2% from 9.3%. The 2027 forecast was increased to 8.3% from 7.6%, while the 2028 projection remained at 7.5%. The bank also revised its estimate for 2025 growth upward to 11.1% from 10.3%. Despite the upward revisions, the bank still expects a gradual slowdown from 11.1% in 2025 to 7.5% by 2028. Analysts cited state investments, infrastructure projects, the 'My Home' housing program, and the Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund as key growth drivers.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

The bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 11.5% from 8.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points. For 2027, the inflation forecast was raised to 9.2% from 7.4%, and for 2028 to 7% from 6.2%. The bank attributed the higher inflation outlook to rising global food and oil prices, logistics disruptions from the Middle East conflict, and domestic wage, excise, and tariff increases. The May electricity tariff increase alone is estimated to add 0.4–0.6 percentage points to inflation. Consequently, the average policy rate forecast for 2026 was raised to 11.8% from 11%, and to 12% for 2027–2028 from 11%.

Exchange Rate Outlook

The bank improved its average som exchange rate forecast for 2026 to 88 soms per dollar from 89.2 soms. The revised forecast implies a stronger som alongside higher growth, but also a longer period of elevated inflation and tight monetary policy.

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EDB raises Kyrgyzstan 2026 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%, inflation to 11.5%

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EDB raises Kyrgyzstan 2026 GDP growth forecast to 10.2%, inflation to 11.5%

Key Facts

Growth Forecast Revisions

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Exchange Rate Outlook

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