AERC Raises Kazakhstan 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.8%, Sees Inflation at 10.4%

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialJuly 31, 2026 at 11:24 AM

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AERC Raises Kazakhstan 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.8%, Sees Inflation at 10.4%

The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.8% from 4.6% in its July macro review. The think tank also lifted its annual average inflation projection to 10.4% from 9%, citing fuel price liberalisation and housing sector reforms. The tenge exchange rate forecast was revised to 511.5 per dollar from 518.5, reflecting reduced foreign-currency demand and attractive tenge instruments in the first half of 2026.

Growth Outlook Upgrade

AERC's revision reflects stronger-than-expected dynamics in transport, construction and manufacturing, according to the report. On the demand side, household consumption and gross fixed capital formation are seen driving expansion. The centre’s aggregate demand and supply models underpinned the upgrade, lifting the 2026 forecast 0.2 percentage points above its April estimate.

Inflation and Exchange Rate Adjustments

The forecast for average inflation was raised to 10.4% from 9%, pressured by expanding aggregate demand, ongoing fuel price liberalisation and housing and utilities reforms. The tenge is now seen averaging 511.5 per dollar in 2026, stronger than the previous 518.5 projection, after averaging 487.85 in June and firming to 470 in mid-July. The ruble-tenge cross rate assumption was revised to 6.3 from 6.1.

What's Next

AERC plans to release its next quarterly macro review in October 2026. Whether the renewed growth momentum can offset persistent inflation risks remains a key uncertainty for policymakers.

3 sources

AERC Raises Kazakhstan 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.8%, Sees Inflation at 10.4%

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AERC Raises Kazakhstan 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.8%, Sees Inflation at 10.4%

Growth Outlook Upgrade

Inflation and Exchange Rate Adjustments

What's Next

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