Kazakhstan GDP growth to slow to 4.1% in H1 2026, government targets 5.3% in 2027

September 10, 2026 at 07:30 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Kazakhstan's GDP grew 4.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, down from 6.5% in 2025, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. The government approved a forecast on August 25 targeting 5.3% growth in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. The slowdown comes as non-oil sectors contribute a growing share of economic expansion.

Key Facts

Kazakhstan's GDP grew 4.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, reaching 70.9 trillion tenge, according to the Bureau of National Statistics.
The government approved a socio-economic development forecast for 2027-2029 on August 25, 2026, projecting real GDP growth of 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029.
In the first half of 2026, manufacturing contributed 1.25 percentage points to GDP growth, trade 0.93 percentage points, and construction 0.79 percentage points.
Nominal GDP is forecast to rise from 199.3 trillion tenge in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge in 2029.
Kazakhstan's real GDP growth was 4.3% in 2021, 3.2% in 2022, 5.1% in 2023, 5.0% in 2024, and 6.5% in 2025.

Recent Growth Trajectory

Kazakhstan's economy expanded 6.5% in 2025, the fastest pace in recent years, with nominal GDP reaching 159.6 trillion tenge, or about $306 billion at the National Bank's average annual exchange rate. Growth in 2025 was led by transport and warehousing at 19.4%, construction at 17.5%, trade at 8.1%, and industry at 7.7%. In 2024, GDP grew 5.0%, with construction up 15.3%, agriculture 13.7%, transport and warehousing 9.4%, and manufacturing 6.8%. The economy grew 5.1% in 2023, driven by transport and warehousing at 17%, construction at 15.1%, and information and communications at 8.5%.

First Half 2026 Slowdown

GDP reached 70.9 trillion tenge in the first half of 2026, up 4.1% in real terms from the same period of 2025, according to data published by the Bureau of National Statistics on September 7. Construction output rose 15.2%, manufacturing 9.8%, transport and warehousing 7.1%, trade 5.7%, and agriculture 4.4% in the first half of 2026. Manufacturing contributed 1.25 percentage points to GDP growth, trade 0.93 percentage points, and construction 0.79 percentage points, indicating a strengthening role for non-oil sectors.

Government Forecast Through 2029

The government approved the socio-economic development forecast for 2027-2029 on August 25, 2026. Under the baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to grow 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is forecast to increase from 199.3 trillion tenge in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge in 2029. The National Development Plan through 2029 sets an even higher strategic target for economic growth.