US Census Bureau reports over-65s outnumber under-5s for first time

September 7, 2026 at 06:25 PM2 min

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The US Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report shows that people aged 65 and over now outnumber children under 5 for the first time in human history. The share of the global population aged 65 and over stood at 10.5 percent in 2025 and is projected to reach 19.6 percent by 2060. The shift is driven by falling fertility rates, with 71 percent of countries now below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

Key Facts

The US Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report found that people aged 65 and over outnumbered children under 5 for the first time in human history.
The share of the global population aged 65 and over was 10.5 percent in 2025 and is projected to rise to 19.6 percent by 2060.
Between 2025 and 2060, the global population is expected to grow from 8 billion to 10 billion, with 1.148 billion of that increase coming from the 65-and-over age group.
In 71 percent of countries worldwide, the fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
China's fertility rate dropped to 1.06 births per woman in 2023, one of the lowest rates globally.

Historic Demographic Shift

The US Census Bureau's "An Aging World: 2025" report documents a historic demographic turning point: people aged 65 and over now outnumber children under 5 for the first time in human history. In 2025, the 65-and-over age group accounted for 10.5 percent of the global population, and the report projects that share will climb to 19.6 percent by 2060. This means that by mid-century, roughly one in five people worldwide will be aged 65 or older, compared with about one in ten today.

Falling Fertility Rates

The report identifies declining birth rates as the most critical driver of rapid global aging. In 71 percent of countries worldwide, the fertility rate has fallen below the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman. China provides one of the starkest examples: its fertility rate dropped to 1.06 births per woman in 2023, one of the lowest rates recorded globally.

Population Growth Projections

The global population is expected to grow from 8 billion in 2025 to 10 billion by 2060. Of that 2 billion increase, 1.148 billion people are projected to be in the 65-and-over age group. The population aged 0-19 is expected to remain nearly flat over the same period due to low birth rates.