UN report projects global warming to pass 1.5C threshold within years

September 2, 2026 at 06:14 PM2 minAI digestMimile.ai Editorial

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The United Nations Environment Programme projects that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5C Paris Agreement threshold within the next few years. The report calls for an 'overshoot' strategy to later cool the planet back below that limit. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said humanity is speeding past the limit to avoid climate catastrophe.

Key Facts

The UN Environment Programme report projects the world will cross the 1.5C threshold 'in the next few years'.
The most optimistic scenario in the report has warming peaking at 1.8C around mid-century if countries pursue ambitious climate goals.
Current government policies are projected to push temperatures to 2.6C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
The report envisions an 'overshoot' path where temperatures pass 1.5C, peak, then gradually cool below the threshold ideally by the end of the century.
The world is currently at 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, based on a 20-year average.

The Overshoot Strategy

The UN report recommends limiting excessive warming and then bringing temperatures back below the 1.5C threshold. This would require ending fossil fuel use and developing technology to remove carbon dioxide from the air. Report co-author Richard Betts of the University of Exeter called the report a 'reality check' but said there is still a lot that can be done to limit warming. The report describes a hump-shaped temperature path that peaks and then gradually cools below 1.5C, ideally by the end of the century.

Temperature Projections

The report's most optimistic scenario has warming peaking at 1.8C around mid-century if countries pursue ambitious climate goals. Under current government policies, temperatures are projected to reach 2.6C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The world is currently at 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, based on a 20-year average rather than a single year's temperatures. The 1.5C threshold was adopted after UN scientists found dramatic impacts at 2C that are not present at 1.5C.