OPEC+ share of global oil output falls to 40% as China demand shifts market power
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OPEC+ countries accounted for about 40% of global oil production in July, down from over 48% before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data. The group's ability to influence prices has weakened as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked and China's imports have fallen by roughly 400 million barrels since the war began. China is increasingly balancing the global oil market, a role once associated with OPEC+.
Key Facts
- OPEC+ share of global oil production fell to about 40% in July from over 48% before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.
- The UAE's exit from OPEC in May accounted for 4–5 percentage points of the decline.
- China has imported roughly 400 million fewer barrels of oil since the war began compared with the same period last year.
- Since March, the core OPEC+ group has announced six production increases, but most have remained on paper due to Strait of Hormuz restrictions.
OPEC+ Output Share
War-related supply disruptions and damage to energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries have reduced the group's share of global production. Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data show OPEC+ accounted for about 40% of world oil output in July. Before the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, the share exceeded 48%. The UAE's departure from OPEC in May contributed 4–5 percentage points to the decline.
Price Influence
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route, limits the alliance's ability to quickly raise or lower supply. Since March, the core OPEC+ group has announced six production increases, but most have had little impact on prices because of Hormuz restrictions. Reuters notes the situation differs sharply from 2019, when traders closely watched OPEC+ decisions for their potential to move oil prices. The key question now is not only how much the alliance is willing to produce, but how much oil can physically be produced and exported under wartime conditions.
China Demand
China's reduced imports have been a major factor capping oil prices in 2026. Since the war began, China has purchased about 400 million fewer barrels of oil than in the same period last year. The decline stems from fuel export restrictions, lower refining activity, and the spread of electric vehicles. Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh said China has effectively become a demand center capable of balancing the market.
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OPEC+ share of global oil output falls to 40% as China demand shifts market power
