Nearly 45 mln bpd of oil supply tied to conflict zones in 2026

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialAugust 25, 2026 at 05:01 PM

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Nearly 45 mln bpd of oil supply tied to conflict zones in 2026

Almost 45 million barrels per day of oil supply, or more than 43% of global output, came from countries affected by armed conflicts in 2026, Reuters calculations based on IEA data show. Six months into the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the oil market faces a major supply shock, with disruptions in the Persian Gulf estimated at 5–7 million bpd. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Libya and restrictions on Venezuelan exports add further pressure.

Key Facts

Almost 45 million barrels per day, or more than 43% of global oil supply, came from countries affected by armed conflicts in 2026.
Current oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf are estimated at 5–7 million barrels per day.
Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have knocked out about 10% of global refining capacity.
The International Energy Agency released record volumes of oil from strategic reserves to ease the deficit.
US diesel prices reached record levels despite high refinery utilization.

Supply Shock

Six months after the start of the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the global oil market faced a large-scale supply shock. Almost 45 million barrels per day, or more than 43% of global supply, came from countries affected by armed conflicts in 2026. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect oil production and refining, while the ongoing conflict in Libya and restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports add further pressure. Current supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf are estimated at 5–7 million barrels per day.

Refining and Trade Disruptions

Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have knocked out about 10% of global refining capacity. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries reduced fuel production, and Moscow imposed restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports. Saudi Arabia is redirecting some flows through the Red Sea, and regional exporters use alternative export routes amid restrictions near the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks in the Red Sea and near the Suez Canal create additional threats to maritime supply routes.

Market Impact

Rising fuel costs increase inflationary pressure and raise borrowing costs for governments. US diesel prices reached record levels despite high refinery utilization. The International Energy Agency released record volumes of oil from strategic reserves to ease the deficit. Most of these operations are already completed, but global fuel inventories continue to decline.

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Nearly 45 mln bpd of oil supply tied to conflict zones in 2026

inbusiness.kz

Inbusiness.kz

Finance

Global oil security weakens as conflicts hit 45 million bpd of supply

Almost half of the world's oil supply is produced in regions engaged in active conflicts, Reuters reported this week. The situation raises questions about long-term oil supply security and the limits to diversification. Physical supply has been severely compromised, leading to rationing and emergency releases from storage across the world.

Finance

OPEC+ share of global oil output falls to 40% as China demand shifts market power

OPEC+ countries accounted for about 40% of global oil production in July, down from over 48% before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data. The group's ability to influence prices has weakened as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked and China's imports have fallen by roughly 400 million barrels since the war began. China is increasingly balancing the global oil market, a role once associated with OPEC+.

Finance

U.S. sees Hormuz oil transit 77% below pre-war, disruptions into 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz will remain severely depressed into 2027, with flows at 4.9 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, down 77% from pre-conflict levels. The disruption is expected to sustain a global supply shortfall of around 600,000 barrels per day through end-2027, even as some recovery begins in September.

Finance

Petrol prices rise in 145 countries six months into US-Israel war on Iran

Petrol prices have risen in at least 145 countries since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28. The increase, tracked by GlobalPetrolPrices across 170 countries and territories, has added to the burden on consumers worldwide. Myanmar recorded the steepest rise at 56 percent, while 25 mostly oil-producing countries saw prices unchanged or lower.

Nearly 45 mln bpd of oil supply tied to conflict zones in 2026

Key Facts

Supply Shock

Refining and Trade Disruptions

Market Impact

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