Aral Sea restoration could prevent 605 million tons of CO2 emissions, study finds

AI digestMimile.ai EditorialAugust 26, 2026 at 04:25 PM

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Aral Sea restoration could prevent 605 million tons of CO2 emissions, study finds

A study published in Science on July 16 estimates that exposed Aral Sea sediments released 748 million tons of CO2 between 1960 and 2022. Restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2, adding a climate dimension to restoration efforts. The avoided emissions could be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits.

Key Facts

Exposed Aral Sea sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 between 1960 and 2022, according to a study published in Science on July 16.
Restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2, the researchers estimate.
The avoided emissions could be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits at 2024 voluntary market prices.
About $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could restore roughly half of the 1960 Aral Sea area and generate about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits.
New vegetation on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of the carbon emissions from exposed sediments.

Carbon Legacy of the Aral Sea

When the Aral Sea was a full body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide and organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, sediments were exposed to air, organic matter decomposed, and stored carbon returned to the atmosphere as CO2. Winds carry salt and dust from the Aralkum Desert, spreading consequences beyond the former shoreline. In 2022, researchers collected sediment samples and measured CO2 release, combining this with satellite data to estimate carbon losses. Exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2.

Restoration Economics and Feasibility

The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects, the avoided emissions could be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. About $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the 1960 Aral Sea area. Such restoration could generate about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Fully restoring the Aral Sea is widely considered unrealistic under current conditions, with water availability the central issue.

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Aral Sea restoration could prevent 605 million tons of CO2 emissions, study finds

timesca.com

Times of Central Asia

Environment

Aral Sea reflooding could prevent 605 megatons of CO₂ emissions

A study published in Science estimates that reflooding the Aral Sea could prevent 605 megatons of CO₂ emissions, equivalent to nearly three years of Spain's greenhouse gas output. The desiccated seabed has already released 748 megatons of CO₂ since 1960. Researchers highlight the potential for carbon credits worth up to $18 billion.

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Kazakhstan North Aral volume rises to 23.5 billion cubic meters in 2026

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Environment

Aral Sea dried seabed has emitted 748 million tonnes CO2 since 1960s

The dried seabed of the Aral Sea has emitted about 748 million tonnes of carbon dioxide since the 1960s, Spanish researchers estimated after a 2022 expedition. The sediments still hold an estimated 605 million tonnes of carbon dioxide that has not yet been released.

Aral Sea restoration could prevent 605 million tons of CO2 emissions, study finds

Key Facts

Carbon Legacy of the Aral Sea

Restoration Economics and Feasibility

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