Canada Oil Sands Maintenance to Cut 300,000 bpd, Squeezing U.S. Refiners
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Canadian oil sands maintenance in September will cut crude production by 300,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy said. U.S. refiners, already running at full capacity, face a supply squeeze as Canadian heavy crude flows decline. The drop comes as U.S. crude inventories hit a 12-month low and Venezuelan output recovery lags.
Key Facts
- Rystad Energy projects Canadian crude production will drop by 300,000 barrels per day in September due to oil sands maintenance.
- U.S. crude inventories are at their lowest level in 12 months, reducing the buffer normally used to offset seasonal Canadian supply disruptions.
- Canadian oil producers typically send 4 million barrels per day of heavy crude to U.S. refiners, a volume that will decline in September.
- Venezuela exported 1.16 million barrels per day of crude in July, down slightly from 1.2 million barrels per day in June, as PDVSA drew less from storage.
- U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 786,000 barrels per day in July, the highest since early 2019 and up from 284,000 barrels per day in January 2026.
Canadian Supply Disruption
All major oil sands operators will cut production for maintenance in September, according to Rystad Energy. Pipeline operators have stopped rationing space on their lines, signaling expectations of lower demand for September shipments. The seasonal disruption would normally be offset by drawing on crude storage, but U.S. inventories are at a 12-month low. Canadian producers typically ship 4 million barrels per day of heavy crude to U.S. refiners, a flow that will shrink next month.
Venezuelan Output Recovery
Venezuela exported 1.16 million barrels per day of crude in July, a slight decline from June's 1.2 million barrels per day. PDVSA withdrew less crude from storage to meet export demand, indicating production has not yet picked up meaningfully. July exports to the United States averaged 786,000 barrels per day, the highest since early 2019 and up from 284,000 barrels per day in January 2026. Supermajors remain wary of returning to Venezuela, while some service providers and smaller U.S. oil companies have signed deals in recent months.
Global Fuel Market Pressure
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries continue to squeeze gasoline and diesel production in Russia. Global fuel supply remains constrained, especially in diesel, pushing refining margins to all-time highs earlier this month. Tanker-tracking companies have not been able to verify Washington's claims that tanker traffic in the Middle East has normalized.
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Canada Oil Sands Maintenance to Cut 300,000 bpd, Squeezing U.S. Refiners
