Wars in Iran and Ukraine squeeze global ship fuel supply, analysts say

September 7, 2026 at 04:26 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Global ship fuel supplies are tightening as wars in Iran and Ukraine disrupt refining and key shipping routes. Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45 percent year on year to 447,000 barrels per day from March to August, according to Kpler. Energy Aspects projects a fuel oil deficit of 218,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, the first shortfall since 2025.

Key Facts

Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45 percent year on year to 447,000 barrels per day from March to August, according to Kpler.
Energy Aspects expects a fuel oil market deficit of 218,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, the first shortfall since the third quarter of 2025.
Russian fuel oil exports hit a record low of 591,000 barrels per day in August, down from an average of over 860,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to Kpler data going back to 2017.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas passed before the war, has been paralysed by the US-Israel war on Iran.
Ukrainian drone attacks have hit multiple major Russian refineries in recent weeks, reducing Russia's refinery output.

Supply Disruptions

Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45 percent year on year to an average of 447,000 barrels per day from March to August, according to Kpler data. The US-Israel war on Iran has paralysed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas passed before the war. Attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have further disrupted supply routes. Iran has hit multiple oil facilities in the Gulf in retaliation against the US.

Russian Refinery Impact

Ukraine has bombed multiple major Russian refineries in recent weeks. Russian fuel oil exports fell to a record low of 591,000 barrels per day in August, down from an average of over 860,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to Kpler data going back to 2017. Russia is the world's second-largest exporter of crude oil. The net result is less crude being shipped from key oil-producing regions, especially the Gulf and Russia.

Market Outlook

Energy consultancy Energy Aspects expects the fuel oil market to face a deficit of 218,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. This is the first shortfall it has estimated since the third quarter of 2025, when it was a marginal 6,000 barrels per day. Any shortage of ship fuel could drive up global freight costs, affecting consumers and manufacturers of goods and commodities.