Kazakhstan: Mature Field Depletion, Tengiz Negotiations and Export Diversification
Kazakhstan is simultaneously addressing three tasks in its oil sector: improving recovery at depleted fields, tightening conditions for Tengiz, and reducing dependence on Russian transit. KMG has approved a new strategy for mature assets, the government is demanding $10 billion and a larger stake in Tengiz, and oil companies are exploring a trans-Caspian route.
Sources
· 7Зрелые месторождения Казахстана выработаны на 70%, КМГ планирует геологоразведку
1Bloomberg: Казахстан хочет $10 млрд и большую долю в Тенгизе за продление контракта
2Nikkei: нефтяные компании Казахстана изучают экспорт нефти в обход России
3Казахстан хочет увеличить долю в Тенгизе до 35% — Bloomberg
4Минэнерго Казахстана выставит на аукцион 26 нефтегазовых участков 18 ноября
5Казахстан рассматривает альтернативные маршруты экспорта нефти на фоне 64,8 млн тонн через КТК
6Добыча нефти в Казахстане снизилась на 8,4% в первом полугодии
7Key points
- Kazakhstan's mature fields are nearly 70% depleted; KMG has selected 32 of 143 facilities at 12 fields to improve oil recovery and plans additional production of 155 million tonnes.
- Kazakhstan has proposed a one-time payment of $10 billion and an increase in the state share in Tengizchevroil (TCO) from 20% to 35% in exchange for extending the Tengiz agreement; current stakes are Chevron 50%, ExxonMobil 25%, KMG 20%, Lukoil 5%.
- Kazakhstan's largest oil companies are exploring expanding exports bypassing Russia, including building an underwater pipeline across the Caspian or expanding the tanker fleet.
- KMG is preparing a large-scale geological exploration program with resource potential of up to 60 billion tonnes of fuel equivalent.
- The Energy Ministry will hold an auction for 26 oil and gas blocks on November 18, 2026; bids are accepted until October 5.
What happened
Kazakhstan's largest oil companies are exploring options to expand oil exports bypassing Russia via the trans-Caspian route. Among the options under consideration are building an underwater pipeline across the Caspian Sea or significantly expanding the tanker fleet. This comes amid repeated suspensions of CPC operations this year after Ukrainian drone attacks on the terminal and tankers.
What changed
Bloomberg previously reported that Kazakhstan is demanding a one-time payment of $10 billion and an increase in its stake from 20% to 35%, and that negotiations are at an early stage. Alternative routes have also been discussed before: the Energy Ministry noted that in 2025, 64.8 million tonnes of the total 78.7 million tonnes passed through CPC. Now Nikkei reports that oil companies are exploring specific options: an underwater pipeline or expansion of the tanker fleet.
What to watch
Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry will hold an electronic auction for 26 oil and gas blocks on November 18, 2026; bids are accepted until October 5. The auction includes 24 exploration and production blocks and two producing fields.
Context
Oil production in Kazakhstan in the first half of 2026 fell by 8.4% year-on-year to 45.7 million tonnes.
What's Next
An electronic auction for 26 oil and gas blocks will be held on November 18, 2026; bids are accepted until October 5.