Moody's affirms Kazakhstan's Baa1 sovereign rating with stable outlook
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Moody's affirmed Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating at Baa1 with a stable outlook, citing strong fiscal position and low government debt. The rating agency noted the economy continues to grow despite lower oil output, driven by non-oil sectors. The affirmation comes as Kazakhstan pursues tax reforms and infrastructure investment to diversify its economy.
Key Facts
- Moody's affirmed Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating at Baa1 with a stable outlook.
- The rating affirmation reflects Kazakhstan's strong fiscal position, low government debt, high debt-servicing capacity, and accumulated foreign currency assets.
- Moody's noted that Kazakhstan's economy continues to grow despite declining oil production, driven by manufacturing, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors.
- Moody's expects ongoing investments in digital, transport, and energy infrastructure to support medium-term economic growth.
- Moody's believes tax reforms will strengthen fiscal sustainability by expanding the non-oil revenue base of the budget.
Rating Affirmation
Moody's affirmed Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating at Baa1 with a stable outlook on September 29, 2026. The affirmation was announced by Kazakhstan's Ministry of National Economy and the Prime Minister's press service. The rating reflects Kazakhstan's strong fiscal position, supported by low government debt, high debt-servicing capacity, and accumulated foreign currency assets. These factors provide economic policy flexibility and a substantial buffer to mitigate external economic shocks, according to the ministry.
Economic Growth Drivers
Moody's noted that Kazakhstan's economy continues to expand despite a decline in oil production. Growth is driven by significant contributions from manufacturing, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors. The agency highlighted ongoing investments in digital, transport, and energy infrastructure as key to supporting medium-term growth. Moody's expects non-oil sectors to remain the main drivers of economic growth.
Fiscal Reforms
Moody's believes tax reforms will strengthen fiscal sustainability by expanding the non-oil revenue base of the budget. The agency previously noted the ongoing implementation of fiscal reforms, including changes to tax legislation. A higher share of budget revenues not directly tied to oil exports reduces dependence on commodity price fluctuations, according to the Ministry of National Economy. Further economic diversification, combined with tax reform and infrastructure investment, improves fiscal prospects and opportunities for growth, the ministry stated.