Kazakhstan GDP grows 4.1% in H1 2026 despite oil output drop

September 3, 2026 at 12:59 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Kazakhstan's economy grew 4.1% in the first half of 2026, driven by a 9.8% expansion in manufacturing. Real wages fell 1.8% in the second quarter, the worst performance among EAEU members. Private investment rose 21.4% over the period, offsetting reduced state support.

Key Facts

Kazakhstan's GDP grew 4.1% in the first half of 2026, while inflation remained at 10.3%.
Manufacturing output rose 9.8% year-on-year, reaching 47% of total industrial production.
Real wages in Kazakhstan fell 1.8% in the second quarter of 2026, the worst among EAEU countries.
Private investment increased by 21.4% in the first half of 2026, reaching 87% of total investment.
Business activity index stood at 55.2 points in Q2 2026, above the neutral 50-point mark.

Manufacturing Drives Growth

Manufacturing output expanded 9.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with its share of industrial production reaching 47%. Food production grew 14.7% and machinery manufacturing rose 23.1%, together accounting for about a third of the manufacturing sector. Mining output, which represents 46% of industrial production, contracted 4% due to temporary restrictions at Tengiz. The business activity index reached 55.2 points in the second quarter, with the strongest dynamics in Turkistan, Almaty, and Abai regions.

Investment Structure Shift

Fixed capital investment grew 9.6% in real terms in January–June 2026. Companies' own funds financed 68.8% of investments, while bank and other borrowed funds rose 53.4% in nominal terms. Budget financing fell 28.7%, and the state operated without the targeted transfer from the National Fund, which amounted to 3.25 trillion tenge in 2025. Private investment grew 21.4% in the first half, reaching 87% of total investment, according to Ramazan Dosov, chief analyst at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan.

Household Income Pressure

Real incomes of Kazakhstanis rose only 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026. The Eurasian Economic Commission reported that real wages in Kazakhstan fell 3.3% in Q1 2026, the worst among EAEU members. In the second quarter, real wages declined 1.8%, continuing the negative trend. Businesses cited rising raw material costs and fiscal burden as the main constraints, with 86.7% of surveyed companies rating business conditions as favorable or satisfactory.