Uzbek Central Bank forecasts inflation to fall to 5% in 2027

September 27, 2026 at 05:15 PM2 min

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Uzbekistan's Central Bank projects annual inflation will decline to 5% in 2027, according to its Monetary Policy Review. The regulator expects price growth of 6.5% in 2026, down from 7.3% in 2025. The 5% target was originally set for 2023 under a 2019 presidential decree but remains unmet.

Key Facts

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan forecasts inflation at 5% in 2027 and 6.5% in 2026.
Inflation was 9.8% in 2024 and 7.3% in 2025.
The IMF projects global economic growth to slow to 3% in 2026 and rise to 3.4% in 2027.
Uzbekistan's GDP growth is expected to be 7.5-8% in 2026 and 6-7% in 2028.
Annual inflation fell below 7% in May 2026 and reached 6.2% in August 2026.

Inflation Forecast

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan expects annual inflation to decline to 5% in 2027, according to its Monetary Policy Review. For 2026, the regulator projects price growth of 6.5%. Inflation was 9.8% in 2024 and 7.3% in 2025. The bank aims to keep inflation stable at 5% annually by 2028.

Economic Growth Outlook

The Central Bank estimates Uzbekistan's economic growth at 7.5-8% in 2026. Growth is expected to moderate to 6-7% in 2028. The IMF projects global growth to slow to 3% in 2026 and accelerate to 3.4% in 2027. The regulator cites geopolitical shocks and high energy costs as constraints on economic activity.

Policy Context

A 2019 presidential decree set a permanent inflation target of 5% to be achieved by 2023. The target has not been met, with the Central Bank citing monopolies and non-free markets as key factors. Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov said the bank is working with the government to reduce non-monetary factors and boost competition in five to six product markets. Annual inflation fell below 7% in May 2026, reaching 5.5% in May, 6.4% in June and July, and 6.2% in August.