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Kazakhstan analysts raise 2027-2028 inflation forecasts to 8.5% and 7%

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Kazakhstan analysts raise 2027-2028 inflation forecasts to 8.5% and 7%

Analysts surveyed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised their inflation forecasts for 2027 to 8.5% from 7.8% and for 2028 to 7% from 6.8%. They also revised the base rate trajectory upward for 2027 to 13% from 12.8%, while keeping the 2026 inflation forecast at 10%. The tenge exchange rate outlook improved to 490 per dollar in 2026 from 500 previously.

Key Facts

  • The 2027 inflation forecast was raised to 8.5% from 7.8%, and the 2028 forecast to 7% from 6.8%.
  • The base rate is now expected to average 13% in 2027, up from 12.8%, and 10.5% in 2028, down from 10.6%.
  • The average USD/KZT exchange rate forecast for 2026 was revised to 490 tenge per dollar from 500 tenge.
  • GDP growth forecasts remained unchanged at 4.8% for 2026, 4.6% for 2027, and 4.3% for 2028.
  • The Brent oil price forecast for 2026 was lowered to $82.7 per barrel from $84.6.

Inflation and Base Rate Outlook

Survey respondents raised their 2027 inflation forecast to 8.5% from 7.8% and their 2028 forecast to 7% from 6.8%. The 2026 inflation forecast was kept at 10%. The base rate is expected to average 16% in 2026, 13% in 2027, and 10.5% in 2028. The 2027 base rate forecast was raised from 12.8% to 13%, while the 2028 forecast was lowered from 10.6% to 10.5%.

Exchange Rate and Oil Price Forecasts

The average USD/KZT exchange rate forecast for 2026 was revised to 490 tenge per dollar from 500 tenge. For 2027, analysts expect 516.2 tenge per dollar, down from 532.1 tenge previously. For 2028, the forecast is 562.2 tenge per dollar, down from 566.6 tenge. The Brent oil price forecast for 2026 was lowered to $82.7 per barrel from $84.6, while 2027 and 2028 forecasts were set at $75 and $73.7 per barrel respectively.

GDP and Trade Projections

GDP growth forecasts remained unchanged at 4.8% for 2026, 4.6% for 2027, and 4.3% for 2028. Long-term GDP growth was slightly reduced to 4.2% from 4.4%. Export revenue estimates for 2026 rose slightly to $95 billion, while the 2027 forecast fell to $93.6 billion from $95 billion. The 2028 import forecast was raised to $90.7 billion from $87.7 billion.

3 sources

Kazakhstan analysts raise 2027-2028 inflation forecasts to 8.5% and 7%

kz.kursiv.media

Kursiv.kz

lsm.kz

LSM.kz

inbusiness.kz

Inbusiness.kz