Trump-Xi summit exposes US disadvantage in Global South, analysts say

September 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

The Trump-Xi summit in Washington highlighted a US disadvantage in the Global South, with Beijing offering diplomatic cover without military entanglement. Gulf capitals are calibrating to hedge through Beijing for crisis management while staying under the US security umbrella. Washington's direct role in the US-Israeli war on Iran contrasts with China's restraint, appealing to states from Riyadh to Jakarta.

Key Facts

The summit featured a B-2 flyover, pandas, and a Nixon-era toast, but Beijing emphasized 'constructive strategic stability' in its relationship with Washington.
Washington is a direct party to the nearly seven-month US-Israeli war on Iran, while Beijing offers diplomatic cover without military entanglement.
Trump wants China, Tehran's largest trading partner, to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, choked since the war began in February.
Xi backed a return to a ceasefire and eventual peace talks, but the Chinese readout offered no specifics on reopening the strait and no commitment to pressure Iran.
Gulf capitals are calibrating to stay under the US umbrella for hardware while hedging through Beijing for diplomatic crisis management and energy-market stability.

Middle East Advantage

In the Gulf, Trump wants China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been choked since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February. Xi backed a return to a ceasefire and eventual peace talks, but the Chinese readout offered no specifics on reopening the strait and no commitment to pressure Iran. Beijing appears determined to preserve its room for manoeuvre, and for Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha, that has obvious advantages. China can call Tehran, issue a UN statement, or offer to mediate, all without deploying a single soldier or demanding a military base. Meanwhile, Washington is a direct party to the war, and its credibility as a security guarantor is eroded by the very crisis it helped create.

Global South Calculations

Gulf capitals are already calibrating: stay under the US umbrella for hardware, but hedge through Beijing for diplomatic crisis management and energy-market stability. China's usefulness lies partly in the fact that it is not fighting the wars Washington is. For Iraq, Egypt and Algeria, all watching energy prices spike and shipping lanes choke, China's restraint has its appeal. The Global South does not need another great power to join the war; it needs someone who can talk to all sides without shooting. Beijing is positioning itself to play that role.

Trump's Unpredictability

For governments elsewhere across the Global South, this creates a difficult set of choices. They are pressed to distance themselves from China, even as Trump himself re-engages. They are asked to absorb tariffs and supply-chain shocks, while Washington and Beijing extend their own trade truce for another two months.