Carney says Canada weighed extreme tail risk of US military action

September 24, 2026 at 10:17 PM2 min

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government has examined the remote possibility of US military action against Canada, calling it an "extreme tail risk" scenario. He told The New York Times that preparing for such a risk is responsible risk management, not a base case. Tensions have flared under US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called Canada the "51st state" and launched a trade war.

Key Facts

Carney told The New York Times his administration has carefully examined the "extreme tail risk" of US military action against Canada.
The US military has more than 2 million active-duty and reserve troops, while Canada has less than 200,000.
As of 2024, the US possessed 65 military submarines, compared to Canada's four.
Carney said he speaks with Trump "frequently" and described their relationship as direct and efficient.
Carney said he believed there is still a path to resume trade negotiations with the US.

Risk Assessment

Carney told The New York Times that his administration has carefully examined the "extreme tail risk" scenario where the US takes military action against Canada, and had prepared accordingly, without providing further detail. "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk," Carney told the Times. "That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to" prepare.

Military Imbalance

Any conflict would likely be highly imbalanced. The US military has more than 2 million active-duty and reserve troops, while Canada has less than 200,000, according to their governments. As of 2024, the US possessed 65 military submarines, compared to Canada's four. Canada, though, has the longest coastline in the world and is close to the Arctic, two circumstances that have prompted Carney to boost defence spending since he took office.

US-Canada Relations

Trump has frequently talked about Canada as the "51st state". He also started a trade war with it that deepened last month as two countries began exchanging tit-for-tat tariffs on a number of products. Carney told the Times he speaks with Trump "frequently". "From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues," he told the outlet. Carney said he believed there is still a path to resume trade negotiations with the US.