Canada PM Carney calls US military action risk 'very low probability but heavy consequences'

September 24, 2026 at 01:41 PM2 min

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the possibility of US military action against Canada is a very low probability risk, but one that would carry very heavy consequences if it occurred. Speaking to the New York Times in New York during the 81st UN General Assembly, Carney said Canada is systematically reducing its dependence on US critical technologies. He added that a mutually beneficial trade deal with the US is still possible despite stalled negotiations.

Key Facts

Carney assessed the possibility of US military action against Canada as 'very low probability, but a risk that could have very heavy consequences if it occurred.'
Canada has been systematically reducing its dependence on US critical technologies, from space satellites to fighter jets.
Carney said a trade agreement with the US that serves mutual interests is 'absolutely' possible despite negotiations stalling last month.
US tariffs of 50% on certain Canadian goods took effect on August 22, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs of 15%, 25%, or 50% on US products began on September 8.

Risk Assessment

Carney told the New York Times that Canada has carefully examined the possibility of US military action. He described the scenario as 'only a matter of risk management, not the main scenario, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare for it.' The prime minister said he speaks frequently with the US president despite stalled trade talks.

Technology Independence

Carney explained how Canada is systematically reducing its dependence on the US in critical technologies, from space satellites to fighter jets. The goal is to make Canada less vulnerable to US threats.

Trade Dispute

The US administration announced in July a 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods, citing discriminatory practices against American products. Those tariffs took effect on August 22. Canada responded with tariffs of 15%, 25%, or 50% on specific US products, which began on September 8. Carney said a trade agreement that serves mutual interests is 'absolutely' possible.