Russia's economy ministry sees inflation at 6.8% in 2026, 4% by end-2027

September 24, 2026 at 06:35 PM2 min

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Russia's Economy Ministry projects inflation will reach 6.8% by the end of 2026, before returning to the central bank's 4% target by the end of 2027. Minister Maxim Reshetnikov presented the forecast at a government meeting on September 24. The ministry also expects GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027 and 2.4% by 2029, driven by domestic demand.

Key Facts

Russia's Economy Ministry forecasts inflation at 6.8% by the end of 2026, 2.8 percentage points above the central bank's 4% target.
Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said inflation is expected to return to 4% by the end of 2027, in line with the Bank of Russia's assumption.
The ministry projects GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027 and 2.4% by 2029, driven by domestic demand.
Annual inflation in Russia stood at 6.26% as of September 21, while the central bank expects 6–7% by the end of 2026.
The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% at its September meeting, citing inflation expectations of 14.2% among Russians.

Inflation Forecast

Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov presented the ministry's updated forecast at a government meeting on September 24. The ministry expects inflation to reach 6.8% by the end of 2026, 2.8 percentage points above the central bank's 4% target. Reshetnikov said inflation should return to 4% by the end of 2027, matching the Bank of Russia's assumption. Annual inflation stood at 6.26% as of September 21, according to the central bank.

GDP Growth Outlook

The ministry projects GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027 and 2.4% by 2029. Reshetnikov said domestic demand will be the main driver of economic growth. The Finance Ministry has submitted the federal budget draft for 2027–2029 to the government, with an annual deficit of about 2% of GDP. The budget draft sets a base oil price of $50 per barrel, with excess revenues above that level directed to the National Wealth Fund.

Central Bank Policy

The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% at its September meeting, the first hold in over a year. Inflation expectations among Russians reached 14.2% in September, more than double the official inflation rate. The central bank expects inflation of 6–7% by the end of 2026.