UBS says geopolitical stock drawdowns are short-lived as S&P 500 shrugs off Iran war

September 20, 2026 at 05:07 PM2 min

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UBS Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele said in a Friday note that geopolitical stock market drawdowns tend to be short-lived, with a median duration of 16 days. The S&P 500 has risen after both the April 2025 tariff announcement and the outbreak of the Iran war, and remains near all-time highs. Oil prices have stayed above $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe for shipping.

Key Facts

UBS Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele said geopolitical stock market drawdowns have a median duration of 16 days.
The S&P 500 index has risen after both President Trump's April 2025 tariff announcement and the outbreak of the war in Iran.
Brent and WTI crude oil contracts have held at or above $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe for shipping.
JPMorgan commodities strategists led by Natasha Kaneva told clients on Thursday they have no baseline view for the first time since the Iran conflict began.
The war in Iran is now in its seventh month, having been initially pitched by the White House as a two-week excursion.

Market Resilience

The S&P 500 index has risen after both President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement and the outbreak of the war in Iran. The stock market remains just slightly off all-time highs as equities have largely shrugged off the war, with far more focus on earnings growth and the AI boom. UBS Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele argued in a note to clients on Friday that apparent geopolitical risk doesn't always portend ill for the stock market. Haefele said geopolitical drawdowns tend to be short-lived, measuring at a median of only 16 days.

Oil and Conflict

Benchmark Brent and WTI contracts have continued to hold at or above $100 as the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe for shipping. The war in Iran is now in its seventh month, having been initially pitched by the White House as a two-week excursion. In recent days, Houthi activity along the Red Sea and attacks on critical Saudi infrastructure have opened up a new front in the war. The complexity of the conflict and the number of potential red lines crossed — $100 oil, the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% — led JPMorgan strategists to tell clients they couldn't forecast a clear path forward. JPMorgan commodities strategists led by Natasha Kaneva wrote to clients on Thursday that for the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, they don't have a baseline view.