Small-cap slide and surging downside volume signal cracks in resilient US market

September 21, 2026 at 06:02 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

BTIG strategist Jonathan Krinsky flags downside volume on the New York Stock Exchange at 54% of total volume, near year-to-date highs. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 5% from its highs, a pattern seen only 12 times since 1996. The S&P 500 remains within 3% of its Aug. 13 record of 7,798.99 even as oil prices and Treasury yields rise.

Key Facts

Downside volume on the NYSE reached 54% of total volume, near year-to-date highs, according to BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky.
The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 5% from its highs, a condition seen only 12 times since 1996.
The S&P 500 sits roughly 3% below its all-time closing high of 7,798.99 set on Aug. 13.
The S&P 500 is up approximately 11.7% year to date, anchored by tech mega-caps.
Truist chief investment officer Keith Lerner said the weight of the evidence supports staying aligned with the primary market uptrend.

Market Internals

BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky highlighted that downside volume on the New York Stock Exchange as a percentage of total volume has surged to 54% and is near year-to-date highs. Small-cap stocks, measured by the Russell 2000, are down more than 5% from their highs. Krinsky wrote that since 1996, this is the 12th time this occurrence has happened. Forward returns for the Russell 2000 after such signals have averaged losses of about 2.1%, while S&P 500 returns are mixed.

Index Resilience

The S&P 500 is sitting roughly 3% below its historic record peak of 7,798.99 set on Aug. 13. Tech-heavy mega-caps continue to anchor market stability, leaving the benchmark index up approximately 11.7% year to date. Key players across tech delivered strong second quarters and strong outlooks, helping investors digest elevated Treasury yields. Wall Street remains unwavering in the view that corporate earnings will stay strong into year-end despite much higher oil prices impacting companies and consumers.

Investor Positioning

Brief pullbacks in stocks continue to be met with selective dip-buying, keeping all three major US indexes anchored within single-digit percentage points of their peak levels. Truist chief investment officer Keith Lerner said the weight of the evidence supports staying aligned with the primary market uptrend. Lerner added that underweight investors should consider adding exposure, with growth areas such as tech presenting a relative opportunity today. He said a deeper pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to potentially become more aggressive.