Trump equity stakes face scrutiny as midterms near, strategists warn
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
US government equity stakes in companies like Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals have delivered sharp gains to investors, but strategists warn that a Democratic win in the midterms could trigger scrutiny and reverse momentum. The administration's interventionist approach remains legally untested, creating volatility risk for these stocks.
Key Facts
- Intel Corp. shares have soared over 300% since the initial report that the Trump administration was in talks to take an ownership stake.
- MP Materials Corp. is up 87% since July 2025, when the Department of Defense made a $400 million equity investment.
- Trilogy Metals Inc. has gained 73% since October 2025, when the US government agreed to take a 10% stake.
- Trilogy Metals' US shares jumped from $2.09 to $10.60 within days of the deal announcement, then fell back to $3.62.
- Intel stock is down 37% since peaking in June 2026, the fifth worst performance in the S&P 500 over that stretch.
Government Stake Performance
Intel Corp. shares have soared over 300% in the year since the initial report that the Trump administration was in talks to take an ownership stake in the chipmaker. MP Materials Corp. is up 87% since last July, when the Department of Defense made a $400 million equity investment in the rare earth minerals upstart. Trilogy Metals Inc. has gained 73% since October, when the US government agreed to take a 10% stake in the Canadian minerals exploration company in a deal that included approval for an Alaska road project. Those gains have largely come in bursts, with Trilogy Metals' US shares jumping from $2.09 to $10.60 within days of the deal announcement before quickly giving up those gains to trade at $3.62. MP Materials soared more than 150% within five weeks of the government taking a stake, but it is down nearly 27% in the year since then.
Political and Legal Risk
With the deeply polarized midterm elections approaching and polls suggesting the Democratic Party is likely to win a majority in at least one house of Congress, market strategists see rising risks of the administration's equity positions facing scrutiny in Washington and the courts. Matt Gertken, who leads geopolitical and US political analysis for BCA Research, said the interventionist approach is not fully litigated and mediated in the American system yet, so there will be ups and downs in that process. That could reverse much of the momentum driving these stocks, according to strategists.
Intel's Divergence
Intel is a slightly different case because it is also caught up in the mania for chip stocks as spending on artificial intelligence creates extreme demand for semiconductors. The stock rose steadily as earnings improved, peaking in June after Trump said Apple Inc. will work with the company to design and produce semiconductors in the US. But it is down 37% since then, the fifth worst performance in the S&P 500 Index over that stretch.
2 sources
Trump equity stakes face scrutiny as midterms near, strategists warn
