China's zero-tariff offer to Africa fails to fix trade imbalance

September 16, 2026 at 07:41 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

China's zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries has boosted African exports, with Chinese imports from Africa reaching $28.7 billion in May and June, up 23.5% year-on-year. However, the trade structure remains heavily skewed toward extractive industries, with 89% of African exports to China from 2000-2022 being oil, copper, iron ore, and alumina. Nigeria's minister of state for agriculture, Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi, cautioned that zero tariffs alone do not guarantee success.

Key Facts

Chinese imports from Africa reached $28.7 billion in May and June 2026, up 23.5% from a year earlier.
Africa-China merchandise trade hit a record $348 billion in 2025, with China exporting $225 billion and Africa exporting $123 billion.
From 2000 through 2022, 89% of African exports to China were extractive products such as oil, copper, iron ore, and alumina.
Chinese imports from Nigeria grew more than 40% year-on-year in both May and June 2026, according to China's ambassador to Nigeria.

Trade Imbalance

Africa-China merchandise trade hit a record $348 billion in 2025, but the flows were badly lopsided. China sold Africa $225 billion in goods, while Africa sold China $123 billion, resulting in a $102 billion deficit, 64.5% above 2024's figure. Chinese exports to Africa grew 25.8% in 2025, while African exports to China grew just 5.4%.

Export Composition

Research from the Boston University Global Development Policy Center and the African Economic Research Consortium found that from 2000 through 2022, 89% of African exports to China came from extractive industries. Over the same period, 94% of African imports from China were manufactured goods. A 2026 update from the same researchers showed that extracted natural resources still dominate Africa's exports to China, while agriculture and manufacturing each account for a small share of export value.

Policy Limitations

At a seminar in Abuja on August 14, 2026, Nigeria's minister of state for agriculture, Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi, said zero tariffs alone do not guarantee success. He argued that the question is not whether Nigeria can export more, but whether it can export better. Market access can change the volume of trade, but not necessarily the structure of trade, according to the analysis.