China, US, Indonesia reshape critical mineral processing as strategic security

September 15, 2026 at 12:23 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

China has captured over 90% of global copper smelting capacity growth since 2005, raising its share to about half by 2025. The United States now has only two primary copper smelters and views domestic capacity as essential to national security. Indonesia is pursuing similar industrial policy to retain more processing stages at home.

Key Facts

China accounted for more than 90% of global copper smelting capacity growth since 2005, with its share rising from about 15% to half of global capacity by 2025.
The United States had only two operating primary copper smelters in 2024, according to the US administration.
The International Energy Agency calls modern copper and zinc plants strategic processing hubs that can extract critical by-product minerals and recycle secondary raw materials.
China, the United States, and Indonesia use different industrial policy tools but share the goal of retaining as many production stages and as much added value as possible domestically.

China's Processing Dominance

China built massive processing capacity inside its own economy while also securing access to raw materials worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for more than 90% of global copper smelting capacity growth since 2005. Its share of global capacity rose from about 15% to half by 2025. China demonstrated that a country does not need the world's largest reserves of a metal to occupy a key position in its global production chain. Modern copper and zinc plants are strategic processing hubs that extract critical by-product minerals, support downstream production, and recycle secondary raw materials, according to the IEA.

US Industrial Base Reversal

The United States has a large copper-consuming economy with developed machinery, energy, defense, and high-tech industries, but its own copper smelting base has shrunk substantially over decades. In 2024, only two primary copper smelters remained in operation in the United States, according to the US administration. The White House explicitly called preserving and expanding domestic copper smelting capacity an important condition for reducing dependence on foreign production chains. US authorities now classify copper as a material relevant to energy, defense, manufacturing, and national security, not merely an exchange-traded metal.

Global Policy Shift

China, the United States, and Indonesia use different industrial policy instruments but largely share the goal of retaining as many production stages and as much added value as possible inside their borders. The International Energy Agency expects further growth in demand for critical minerals and simultaneously warns about high concentration of their processing in individual countries. The greater the concentration of global processing in one country, the higher the dependence of other states on that production infrastructure. This risk is prompting other major economies to revise their industrial policies.