Supertanker rates hit $800,000 a day after US destroys five Iranian-linked tankers

September 11, 2026 at 09:00 PM2 min

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Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange's Middle East-to-China benchmark surged to $800,000 a day after US forces destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers. Kpler expects VLCC earnings to stay above $100,000 a day into early next year, more than double the historical norm near $45,000. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are keeping an estimated 10 million to 15 million barrels a day moving through Hormuz despite the risk.

Key Facts

The Baltic Exchange's Middle East-to-China benchmark surged to $800,000 a day after US forces destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers.
Kpler expects VLCC earnings to stay above $100,000 a day into early next year, more than double the historical norm near $45,000.
Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are keeping an estimated 10 million to 15 million barrels a day moving through Hormuz.
The Baltic Exchange's new Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark has surged 85% since inception, reaching almost $386,000 a day this week.
US Gulf-to-Asia shipments on very large crude carriers average about $29.5 million per voyage, equivalent to $15 a barrel before war-risk charges.

Rate Surge

Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange's benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have surged to $800,000 a day. US forces destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers, and Tehran has threatened further escalation in recent days. The freight surge signals that crude oil and refined products continue to flow but are becoming increasingly costly to transport out of the Gulf region to global markets. US Gulf-to-Asia shipments on very large crude carriers average about $29.5 million per voyage, equivalent to $15 a barrel before any additional war-risk charges or unexpected delays.

Market Impact

Kpler expects VLCC earnings to remain above $100,000 a day into early next year, compared with historical levels that exceeded $45,000. Morgan Stanley analysts point out that two-year leasing rates could surge another 20% to 30%. Manu Sehgal, vice president of strategy and feedstock supply at Indian refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy, told Bloomberg that "crude volume is there. What's hampering it is the transit; what's hampering it is the shipping." Surging tanker rates add another layer of inflation pressure for global central banks, filtering through to gasoline, diesel, freight, and ultimately consumer goods on store shelves.

Hormuz Flow

A fleet of tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman is helping keep barrels flowing through the Hormuz chokepoint. Vitol's CEO estimated earlier this week that roughly 10 million barrels a day were crossing the waterway, while Goldman analysts put that figure at around 15 million. The Baltic Exchange's new Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark has surged 85% since inception, reaching almost $386,000 a day this week.