Vietnam's hedging strategy yields 8% GDP growth despite US tariffs

September 9, 2026 at 09:34 PM2 min

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Vietnam's GDP grew 8 percent in 2025 and 8.18 percent in the first half of 2026, defying a 46 percent US tariff imposed in April 2025. Exports to the United States rose 28 percent to $153 billion in 2025, and US imports from Vietnam reached $104.7 billion in the first seven months of 2026, up 23 percent year-on-year. The country has maintained its strategic hedging approach, engaging with all major powers without formal alliances.

Key Facts

Vietnam's GDP growth reached 8 percent in 2025 and 8.18 percent in the first half of 2026.
US imports from Vietnam totaled $104.7 billion in the first seven months of 2026, a 23 percent year-on-year increase.
Vietnam's exports to the United States rose 28 percent to $153 billion in 2025.
On July 2, 2025, Vietnam became the third country to reach a trade deal with the Trump administration, after the United Kingdom and China.

Economic Performance

Vietnam's overall exports increased by 17 percent in 2025, with exports to the United States rising 28 percent to $153 billion. In the first seven months of 2026, the United States imported $104.7 billion worth of goods from Vietnam, a 23 percent year-on-year increase. Vietnam's GDP growth rate reached 8 percent in 2025 and 8.18 percent in the first half of 2026, despite trade tensions and the Iran war. The IMF Outlook in September 2025 had predicted a growth rate of 5.6 percent for 2025.

Strategic Hedging

Vietnam has engaged in repeated, diverse, sustained, and complementary actions to engage with all major powers without reaching a formal alliance with any. On April 2, 2025, the United States imposed a 46 percent tariff on Vietnam, citing a trade deficit of $123.5 billion, the third largest after China and Mexico. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hanoi on April 14-15, 2025, pressuring Vietnam not to give in too much to the United States. Vietnam has built structural indispensability in supply chains as a recipient of investments linked to businesses' 'China plus one' strategies. On July 2, 2025, Vietnam became the third country to reach a trade deal with the Trump administration, after the United Kingdom and China.