Saxony-Anhalt votes in state election as far-right AfD leads polls

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Voters in Saxony-Anhalt cast ballots on Sunday in a state election that could give the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its first outright victory in a German state. Polls show the AfD at 41-42%, more than double its 2021 result, while the Christian Democrats trail at 22-24%. The outcome may determine whether the AfD can form a government alone, a first in postwar Germany.
Key Facts
- Polls show the AfD at 41-42% in Saxony-Anhalt, more than double its 2021 result of around 20%.
- The Christian Democrats (CDU) are polling at 22-24%, down from over 37% in the 2021 state election.
- The Left Party is projected to win 12-13%, making it the third-largest faction in the state parliament.
- The SPD polls at 7-9%, while the Greens hover near the 5% threshold needed to enter the Landtag.
- The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democrats (FDP) risk falling below the 5% threshold, which could boost the AfD's seat share.
AfD Surge
The AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch is officially classified as right-wing extremist by the state's domestic intelligence agency. Ulrich Siegmund leads the AfD campaign, focusing on stricter migration policy, criticism of the federal government, reducing bureaucracy for businesses, and revising climate policy. If the AfD wins an absolute majority of seats, Saxony-Anhalt would become the first German state where the party forms a government alone.
Established Parties Decline
The CDU, which has dominated Saxony-Anhalt politics for most of the past decades, is polling at 22-24%, a sharp drop from its 37% result in 2021. The CDU campaign emphasizes internal security, economic support, vocational education, and stricter control of illegal migration. The SPD and Greens are struggling amid a broader weakening of center-left parties in eastern Germany, with the Greens at risk of missing the 5% threshold.
Threshold Dynamics
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and the Free Democrats are both polling near or below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. If smaller parties fail to enter the Landtag, their votes are effectively discarded, automatically increasing the AfD's share of seats. Polling stations opened at 08:00 and close at 18:00 local time, with first exit polls expected immediately after closing.