ADB raises Uzbekistan 2026 growth forecast to 7%

September 23, 2026 at 01:20 PM2 min

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The Asian Development Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 7.0% from 6.7%, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance and robust domestic demand. The bank kept its Kazakhstan forecast at 4.8% for 2026, while trimming the regional outlook for the Caucasus, Central and West Asia by 0.1 percentage point.

Key Facts

ADB raised Uzbekistan's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.0% from 6.7%.
Uzbekistan's GDP grew 8.5% year-on-year in January–June 2026.
ADB kept Kazakhstan's 2026 growth forecast at 4.8% and 2027 at 4.5%.
ADB cut the 2026 growth outlook for the Caucasus, Central and West Asia to 3.7%.
ADB projects Uzbekistan's 2026 inflation at 6.7%.

Uzbekistan Forecast Upgrade

ADB raised its 2026 growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 7.0% from 6.7% in the September 2026 Asian Development Outlook. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2026, solid macroeconomic indicators, and resilient domestic demand. Uzbekistan's GDP expanded 8.5% year-on-year in January–June 2026, driven by investment growth of 17.5%, expansion in services, and high domestic demand. ADB projects Uzbekistan's inflation at 6.7% in 2026, citing recent energy tariff adjustments, fuel price increases, and related transport and services costs.

Kazakhstan Outlook Unchanged

ADB kept Kazakhstan's growth forecast at 4.8% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027, matching its July projection. Non-oil sectors, government investment, manufacturing, construction, and services are expected to sustain growth despite oil sector disruptions. Kazakhstan's inflation is forecast to slow to 10.4% in 2026 and 9.5% in 2027, supported by earlier monetary tightening and prudential regulation.

Regional Growth and Risks

ADB lowered its 2026 and 2027 growth estimates for the Caucasus, Central and West Asia by 0.1 percentage point to 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively. The bank cited weaker-than-expected external demand, particularly from Turkey, as the main reason for the regional downgrade. Developing Asia-Pacific growth is projected to slow from 5.5% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026, then rise to 5.1% in 2027. ADB flagged risks including Middle East escalation, Russia's war in Ukraine, a strong El Niño lasting into Q1 2027, and AI-related stock corrections.