S&P upgrades Kazakhstan sovereign credit rating to BBB, outlook stable
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S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB- on August 22, 2026. The upgrade reflects the country's economic diversification, accumulated external and fiscal buffers, and resilience to external shocks. The agency projects real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026.
Key Facts
- S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB- on August 22, 2026.
- The BBB rating is the highest level achieved by Kazakhstan since 2016.
- S&P projects Kazakhstan's real GDP growth at 5.1% in 2026.
- The agency expects investment levels to reach 30% of GDP through the Baiterek National Managing Holding.
- Kazakhstan's foreign currency assets exceed its moderate external debt, maintaining a strong external creditor position.
Rating Upgrade
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating to BBB from BBB- on August 22, 2026. The upgrade was announced by the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan. The BBB rating is the highest level achieved by Kazakhstan since 2016. The agency cited sustainable economic development prospects, ongoing economic diversification, and significant accumulated external and fiscal buffers.
Economic Outlook
S&P expects Kazakhstan's economy to remain resilient and continue growing in the medium term despite external challenges and commodity price volatility. Analysts project real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026. Kazakhstan is expected to grow at relatively high rates among oil-exporting countries. The agency highlights the role of a large-scale investment program aimed at economic diversification. Financing projects for raw material processing and infrastructure development, including through Baiterek National Managing Holding, will allow investment levels to reach 30% of GDP.
Fiscal and Banking Strength
S&P believes moderate growth in budget expenditures and measures to expand the tax base will reduce the budget deficit. Kazakhstan maintains a strong position as an external creditor with significant foreign currency assets exceeding its moderate external debt. The agency noted the banking sector's resilience to macroeconomic shocks. Gradual improvements in regulation and supervision have increased banking sector stability and reduced systemic risks related to asset quality.
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S&P upgrades Kazakhstan sovereign credit rating to BBB, outlook stable
