S&P upgrades Kazakhstan sovereign rating to BBB, first since 2016
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S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook, the Ministry of National Economy said. The upgrade reflects the country's economic diversification and significant external and fiscal buffers. S&P projects real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026.
Key Facts
- S&P Global Ratings raised Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook.
- The BBB rating is the highest level Kazakhstan has achieved since 2016.
- S&P projects real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026.
- Kazakhstan's investment level is expected to reach 30% of GDP due to financing through Baiterek National Managing Holding.
Rating Upgrade
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating from BBB- to BBB with a stable outlook. The Ministry of National Economy announced the upgrade, noting it is the first time since 2016 that Kazakhstan has reached this level. The upgrade reflects the country's sustainable economic development prospects, ongoing economic diversification, and significant accumulated external and fiscal buffers.
Economic Outlook
S&P assesses that Kazakhstan's economy will remain resilient and continue to grow in the medium term despite external challenges and volatility in global commodity prices. Analysts forecast real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026, with Kazakhstan's economy expected to grow at relatively high rates among oil-exporting countries. S&P highlights the role of the large-scale investment program aimed at diversifying the economy. Financing of projects for raw material processing and infrastructure development, including through Baiterek National Managing Holding, will allow investment levels to reach 30% of GDP in the future.
Fiscal and Financial Stability
S&P believes that moderate growth in budget expenditures and measures to expand the tax base will reduce the budget deficit. With significant foreign currency assets exceeding a moderate volume of external debt, Kazakhstan will maintain a strong position as an external creditor. The agency also noted the resilience of the banking sector to macroeconomic shocks. Consistent improvement in regulation and supervision policies has contributed to increased banking sector resilience and reduced systemic risks with asset quality.
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S&P upgrades Kazakhstan sovereign rating to BBB, first since 2016
