Stanford study: extreme heat risk for elderly far higher than previous estimates
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A Stanford University study finds that far more elderly people than previously estimated are at high risk of illness or death from extreme heat as climate change raises global temperatures. The researchers factored in age-related decline in the body’s ability to tolerate heat, revealing a level of risk that earlier assessments overlooked.
Key Facts
- People aged 65 and older face more exposure to uncompensable heat stress at 1.5C of global warming above pre-industrial levels than younger adults would at 4C of warming.
- Stanford researchers estimate that the number of people experiencing at least 180 hours a year beyond their age group’s tolerable heat limit is already more than double what it was previously thought to be.
- Long-term global warming is currently estimated at 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, while the annual global average exceeded 1.5C for the first time in 2024, according to the European Union’s Copernicus agency.
- The number of people aged 60 and older is projected to more than double from one billion in 2020 to 2.1 billion in 2050, representing 21 percent of the world’s population.
- Peter KaHung Chan, an epidemiologist at Oxford University, said elderly people are less sensitive to temperature and more likely to live in older buildings with poorer heat resilience.
Aging Populations and Heat Risk
The number of people aged 60 and older is projected to more than double from one billion in 2020 to 2.1 billion in 2050, representing 21 percent of the world’s population. Chris Mullington, honorary clinical senior lecturer at Imperial College London, said previous assessments often assumed everyone could tolerate heat as well as a healthy young adult, substantially underestimating risk to older people. As people age, the body sweats less and blood vessels do not expand as much, forcing the heart to work harder to cool itself. Peter KaHung Chan, an epidemiologist at Oxford University, said elderly people are less sensitive to temperature and more likely to live in older buildings with poorer heat resilience.
Uncompensable Heat Thresholds
People aged 65 and older face more exposure to uncompensable heat stress at 1.5C of global warming above pre-industrial levels than younger adults would at 4C of warming. Long-term global warming is currently estimated at 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, while the annual global average exceeded 1.5C for the first time in 2024, the European Union’s Copernicus agency reported. Stanford researchers estimate that the number of people who experience at least 180 hours a year beyond their age group’s tolerable heat limit is already more than double what it was previously thought to be. The researchers said dangerous heat cannot be defined by one universal temperature threshold because tolerance depends partly on who is being exposed.
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Stanford study: extreme heat risk for elderly far higher than previous estimates
