US midterm election betting reaches $133 million, surpassing 2024 total
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Betting on November's U.S. midterm elections reached $133 million as of August 10, surpassing the $92.4 million wagered during the 2024 congressional election cycle, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective said on Monday. The data underscores the rapid growth of prediction markets, as retail and institutional adoption drives users to platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The growth has been accompanied by increasing regulatory scrutiny, with critics arguing the platforms amount to gambling.
Key Facts
- ACDC examined 7,466 markets on the 2026 U.S. House and Senate races across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US through August 10.
- Major platforms have opened 16 times as many markets on the midterms compared with 2024.
- The top 1% of digital wallets on Polymarket Global account for 68% of all trading volumes on 2026 congressional markets.
- Midterm election is set for November 3, and primary elections across most states run until mid-September.
- In 2024, Kalshi won a federal court challenge against the CFTC that cleared the way for Americans to use derivatives to bet on U.S. election outcomes.
Midterm Betting Volume
Betting on the November U.S. midterm elections reached $133 million as of August 10, exceeding the $92.4 million wagered during the 2024 congressional election cycle. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research and advocacy group, reported the figure on Monday. The analysis covered 7,466 markets related to 2026 U.S. House and Senate races across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US.
Market Expansion and Concentration
Major platforms have opened 16 times as many markets on the midterms compared with 2024. ACDC research fellow Michelle Kendler-Kretsch said coverage has exploded compared to 2024 and markets are now open for nearly every seat in the country. The top 1% of digital wallets on Polymarket Global account for 68% of all trading volumes on 2026 congressional markets. Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow betting on real-world outcomes ranging from politics and economics to popular culture.
Regulatory Scrutiny
The rapid growth has drawn increasing regulatory scrutiny, with critics arguing that the platforms amount to gambling. The prediction market companies and the Trump administration have said the platforms are financial markets, not gambling platforms, and that contracts allow users to hedge against risks or trade on their views of future events. Reuters reported in June that prediction market watchdogs face challenges policing betting on the U.S. midterm elections as thousands of races offer more ways for insiders to profit. In 2024, Kalshi won a federal court challenge against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that cleared the way for Americans to use derivatives to bet on events such as U.S. election outcomes.
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US midterm election betting reaches $133 million, surpassing 2024 total
