US midterms enter final month with Democrats favored to take House

October 3, 2026 at 08:18 PM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Democrats enter the final month of the US midterm campaign with a strong chance to win control of the House of Representatives, according to the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Republicans are pouring millions into races once seen as safe, while President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31 percent, the lowest of his presidency.

Key Facts

The Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats, moving some from 'toss-up' to 'lean Democrat' and others from 'lean Republican' to 'toss-up'.
President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 31 percent, the lowest of either of his two terms, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll released Thursday.
Only 26 percent of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy, two points below former President Joe Biden's lowest rating on the topic.
Voters consistently rank the economy as their top issue, with gas prices made higher by the US-Israel war with Iran dominating concerns.
Top Democrats have signaled that investigations into Trump's family business dealings would be top priorities if they win the House.

House Outlook

Political trackers have long projected Democrats will take control of the US House of Representatives in the November 3 vote. Winning a majority in the 435-member chamber from Republicans would give the party renewed legislative power to assert leverage over Trump. The Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball have recently assessed that the likelihood of Democrats taking the House has only increased. The Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races in the direction of Democrats, including a Texas border district represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz.

Republican Response

Republicans appear to be in damage control, pouring millions of dollars into races once seen as secure victories. The party is also injecting more funding into a handful of marquee showdowns. President Donald Trump, who has embraced the notion of the election being a referendum on his leadership, enters the final month with staggeringly low approval ratings. The most recent Associated Press-NORC polling showed Trump with 31 percent approval, the lowest during either of his two terms.

Voter Sentiment

Surveys continue to show voters rank the economy as their top issue, with topics like gas prices, made higher by the US-Israel war with Iran, dominating their concerns. Immigration and corruption have also regularly ranked high. Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, DC, said Americans are 'disappointed, bordering on angry' that Trump hasn't delivered on core promises. Only 26 percent of respondents approved Trump's handling of the economy, dipping two points below former President Joe Biden's lowest rating on the topic.