Iran's Revolutionary Guards expand army control amid wider war preparations
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After six months of fighting that has not subdued Iran, Tehran is preparing for a larger war, expanding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' authority over the regular army and accelerating missile and drone production. U.S. media, citing Arab intelligence, report Tehran views U.S. negotiations as a distraction and expects a more serious American attack. Some in Tehran fear a wider conflict will reignite mass protests like those in January.
Key Facts
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has gained oversight of Iran's regular army and placed Iraq war veterans and advocates of strikes on Arab states in key military posts.
- Missile and drone production in Iran has accelerated, and Tehran has strengthened counterintelligence.
- The Wall Street Journal reported the next escalation could include sabotage of undersea internet cables in the Persian Gulf and attempts to destabilize Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Arab intelligence services noted Iranian leaders are increasingly discussing ground operations with proxies in Iraq and Yemen and did not rule out a ground operation in Kuwait.
- Some in Tehran fear a wider war will trigger mass protests like the January demonstrations.
Revolutionary Guards Expansion
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, already Iran's main military structure, now holds oversight of the regular army. Key military leadership posts have gone to veterans of the Iraq war and proponents of striking Arab states. Tehran has strengthened counterintelligence and accelerated missile and drone production. Information leaving Iran has become harder to obtain, and the Guards Corps' powers are described as unlimited.
Gulf and Red Sea Threats
The Wall Street Journal assessed a scenario in which Iran sabotages undersea internet cables in the Persian Gulf during the next escalation. The report did not exclude attempts to destabilize Kuwait and Bahrain or a ground operation in Kuwait. Arab intelligence services observed that Iranian leaders have increasingly discussed ground operations with their allies in Iraq and Yemen. Iran wants to extend the naval battlefield to the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia is trying to bypass a possible Hormuz blockade. Houthi forces have become more active recently, complicating Saudi Arabia's Red Sea route.
Domestic Fears in Tehran
Tehran has concluded that Washington is preparing a more serious attack and views U.S. negotiations as a distraction. Instead of believing President Trump wants peace, the Iranian leadership has begun preparing for a bigger war. Some in Tehran fear a wider conflict would unravel the internal situation and trigger mass protests like those in January. The main concern is the risk of public demonstrations similar to the January unrest.
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Iran's Revolutionary Guards expand army control amid wider war preparations
