Oil industry braces for years-long US-Iran war, Brent above $100

September 13, 2026 at 04:00 AM2 min

This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.

Oil producers, traders, and refiners are bracing for a prolonged war between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf, with little hope of a quick resolution. Brent crude is back above $100 per barrel, while Russia's ESPO blend has surged to a premium of about $20 per barrel to Brent. Tanker rates hit an all-time high this month as shipping risks escalate.

Key Facts

Brent crude is back above $100 per barrel, according to OilPrice.
Russia's ESPO blend has surged to a premium of about $20 per barrel to Brent crude.
Tanker rates hit an all-time high this month as risks to shipping in and out of the Middle East escalate.
One APPEC delegate told Reuters that a political settlement would require regime change in Washington or Tehran.

War Expectations

Oil producers, traders, and refiners are bracing for a prolonged war between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf with little to no hope of a quick resolution. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell reported that the mood at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference was not particularly cheerful as hostilities in the Middle East escalate once again. Russell called the conflict "a war of egos", in which neither the U.S. president nor Iran's leadership would accept anything less than an ostensible victory. One APPEC delegate told Reuters that a political settlement would require regime change in Washington or Tehran, adding that regime change in the United States was more likely than in Iran.

Market Impact

Brent is back above $100 per barrel, and this is just the futures price, not the price for physical deliveries. Bloomberg reported that Russia's ESPO blend has surged to a premium of some $20 per barrel to Brent crude as Chinese independent refiners run out of alternative options. The U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and the grab for Venezuelan crude have cut off two main supply channels. Traders appear to have started paying more attention to physical prices than the futures market chart, Russell noted. Tanker rates this month hit an all-time high as escalating risks to shipping in and out of the Middle East prompt traders and tanker operators to undertake inefficient and more expensive trade routes.