Kyrgyzstan to import 4.1 billion kWh in 2026 as domestic supply falls short, ministry projects
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Kyrgyzstan will import an estimated 4.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2026, the Energy Ministry said on August 10, with domestic power plants projected to generate only 15.5 billion kWh of the anticipated 19.6 billion kWh in consumption. The deficit marks a slight increase in import dependence from 3.9 billion kWh a year earlier, even as aging Soviet-era hydropower plants form the backbone of the national grid.
Widening Supply Gap
Consumption is forecast to reach 19.6 billion kWh in 2026, a jump of about 500 million kWh from 2025, while domestic generation remains stuck at 15.5 billion kWh. Imports will cover the 4.1 billion kWh shortfall, with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia among the main suppliers. The deficit has widened from 3.9 billion kWh in 2025, deepening Kyrgyzstan’s reliance on external power flows less than two decades after major new construction effectively ceased.
Soviet-Era Cascade
The backbone of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity sector is a chain of hydropower plants along the Naryn River—Toktogul, Kurpsai, Tash-Kumyr, and Shamaldy-Sai—all commissioned between 1962 and the 1980s. Designed as part of an integrated Central Asian grid, the system stored water in winter and released it for summer irrigation, earning reciprocal fuel and power deliveries from other Soviet republics. When the Union dissolved, that mutual support collapsed, leaving Kyrgyzstan with the same aging dams but a fraction of the regional balancing it once relied on.
Slow Modernization
Rehabilitation has boosted Toktogul’s capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW, yet the country has added little new large-scale generation. Work on Kambarata-2, begun in 1986, only yielded its first units in 2010, and no equivalent project has followed. While demand grew by roughly 860 million kWh in 2025 alone, the incremental gains from refurbishing old turbines cannot match the pace, leaving Kyrgyzstan exposed to volatile water levels and fluctuating import markets.
What's Next
Energy officials are to present heating-season readiness plans, with import negotiations likely to feature high on the agenda. It remains unclear whether long-discussed projects such as Kambarata-1 can be advanced in time to reverse the import trend before annual demand crosses the 20 billion kWh threshold.
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Kyrgyzstan to import 4.1 billion kWh in 2026 as domestic supply falls short, ministry projects
