Kyrgyzstan unveils $850 million climate adaptation plan through 2035

September 7, 2026 at 05:25 PM2 min

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Kyrgyzstan has published a draft National Adaptation Plan through 2035 for public consultation, with an estimated cost of 74.5 billion som ($850 million). The plan addresses shrinking glaciers and shifting river flows that threaten water supplies, agriculture, and hydropower. More than half of the funding is expected to come from international partners and climate funds.

Key Facts

The draft National Adaptation Plan covers 2026–2035 and is estimated to cost 74.5 billion som ($850 million).
Kyrgyzstan's glaciated area has shrunk by 16–17% since the beginning of the 21st century.
Peak runoff on the Naryn and Talas rivers now occurs roughly 50 days earlier than it used to.
The World Bank estimates Kyrgyzstan could lose 2–3% of real GDP by 2040 without adequate adaptation.
In 2024, about 26% of water withdrawn from natural sources was lost during transportation.

Climate Impacts

Average temperature in Kyrgyzstan increased by about 0.28°C per decade between 1981 and 2020. The country's glaciated area has shrunk by 16–17% since the beginning of the 21st century. Even without additional warming, glacier volume could decline by more than another third by mid-century. Peak runoff on the Naryn and Talas rivers has shifted to roughly 50 days earlier than it used to, complicating irrigation and hydropower planning.

Economic and Regional Risks

The World Bank estimates that without adequate adaptation, Kyrgyzstan could lose 2–3% of real GDP by 2040. By mid-century, up to 24% of agricultural irrigation demand could go unmet, and an additional 170,000 people could be pushed into poverty by 2040. Rivers originating in the Tien Shan feed water systems shared across Central Asia, where water is needed both for upstream hydropower and downstream agriculture. In the northern Tien Shan, the number of glacial lakes has increased by about 30%, raising the risk of outburst floods and mudflows. Between 2015 and 2022, nearly one-third of the emergencies recorded in Kyrgyzstan were related to mudflows and floods.

Plan Measures

Bishkek plans to create a climate-risk map, improve forecasting of droughts, floods, and mudflows, modernize monitoring systems, and improve the collection and use of climate data. The draft plan remains subject to public consultation and government approval. More than half of the estimated 74.5 billion som cost is expected to come from international partners and climate funds. In 2024, about 26% of water withdrawn from natural sources was lost during transportation, making agriculture a major focus of the plan.