Kazakhstan's GDP growth target faces construction sector risks
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Kazakhstan's government maintains its 5% GDP growth target for 2026 despite regulatory changes in the construction sector, First Vice Minister Azamat Amrin told Vlast.kz. The sector contributes about a tenth of GDP, but falling household incomes, declining oil output, and external shocks may weigh on growth. Strong first-half construction data—up 15.2%—supports official optimism, even as housing construction accounts for only 13.2% of the sector's growth.
Sector Composition
Non-residential construction dominates Kazakhstan's building sector, accounting for 84.3% of output in 2025 and 84.9% in the first five months of 2026, according to the Ministry of National Economy. Housing construction makes up only 15.7% of the sector. First Vice Minister Amrin emphasized that housing dynamics are not a key driver of overall construction growth.
First-Half Performance
Construction output rose 15.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, driven by a 22.5% increase in infrastructure works, including roads, railways, and metro projects. Non-residential buildings contributed 21.5%, while housing added just 13.2%. Capital investment exceeded 6.7 trillion tenge in January-May, with 1.2 trillion tenge going to housing.
Regulatory Changes
The government has factored in recent regulatory shifts—including tighter thresholds for pension fund withdrawals and the new Construction Code—into its 2026 macroeconomic forecasts, Amrin said. The Ministry of Industry noted that 6.3 million square meters of housing were completed in five months, up 4.5%, and that the new code targets safety and quality, not market restraint.
What's Next
The government will monitor second-half construction data to assess whether the 5% GDP target remains achievable. It remains unclear how falling real incomes and potential oil production cuts will affect the sector's momentum.
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Kazakhstan's GDP growth target faces construction sector risks
